RTX 4XXX Thread

[R8pilot]

"Credible rumors." Maybe.

I do get it. I just don't put a lot of credibility into rumors. Half of all rumors, if not the vast majority, are just people making fairly obvious predictions. It may be true, or it's just as likely people saying "Oh no crypto! Nvidia is doomed!"

The cause of any chip pile-ups would realistically be limited to the 2-3 months time it takes for wafer starts to complete, and Eth started its crash 2 months ago. The overhang could still be substantial, and they could have been caught flat-footed. Or maybe Nvidia has a substantial contingent of smart supply-chain monitoring, analysis and planning people on hand that are nimble enough to adapt.

I expect them to be fine. The real question in my mind is not about dates but pricing. Will the lingering effects of the crypto boom lead them to think that 4090 prices should be as high or higher than 3090ti pricing? Will they go with that smug thought process that "yeah, people are paying $300 more each generation!", or will they leave the gate at reasonable levels?

I do think that guy screaming "buy nowwwww!" is ridiculous either way, though.

 

[RCHeliguy]

I agree that Nvidia is not doomed. They will have lower profitability because of the decrease in demand, and maybe even pull a loss for a quarter, but that's it.

They are involved in many high dollar projects involving AI, self-driving cars, advanced simulation etc.. that they have other very large cost centers that do not revolve around consumer video cards.

However, they did quite publicly announce that they had secured a large amount of production capacity with the 40 series so that there would be no production issues keeping up with demand ( assuming continued demand from crypto). The key word is "secured". They signed contracts obligating them to a chunk of the TMC 5nm production line capacity.

TMC will operate that fab at full capacity as they expected and they will build a glut of 40 series chips unless they are given other 5nm work.

This may end up being a cash flow issue with them needing to take on some debt until they use up the chips produced.

 

[demetri]

I never said nVidia is doomed as a company. They've made some big $$$ in the past couple of years, so they are gonna be fine and won't go under. But those generational price hikes of the past are probably not happening this time around. Not many gamers are willing to pay $2K for a top-tier GPU or $1K for an 80-series one

 

[R8pilot]

TSMC will not suffer a lack of 5nm customers. But if Nvidia has assured ample access, good, prices may be more realistic than if access is rationed.

And if they still have a glut of 30xx chips to sell, also good: Lower prices now, and if there's a delay for 40xx, Nvidia will have a decent stockpile at introduction.

Everyone wins?

 

[RCHeliguy]

If we don't get any VR headset launches, a lot of these sales won't happen.

 

[R8pilot]

Why, Facebook's Quest isn't good enough for people?

Actually, I wasn't satisfied with my G2, but am really curious about what Valve comes up with next. And a 4090 would do wonders with VR (my 2080ti was panting and struggling).

 

[Neawoulf]

Can't say yet. Since i had a lot of issues (microstutter of doom!) with simracing/vr with my old RTX 2080 and a lot of people seem to have similar issues with their RTX 3000 series cards, i tend to go to the AMD direction.

If those issues are solved with the next gen i might buy an RTX 4070/4080, otherwise it's very likely gonna be an RX 7800 XT or something like that.

 

[M D Gourley]

According to this NVidia has been dropping the MSRP on a number of 30 series cards, by 20-25%

Yes....This is exactly why I purchased a 3070, looked in my local Computer Store and the 3070 had reduced by approx $250...so I snapped it up
Unfortunately I need a new PC now as the i7 3770K is working a lot harder to keep up.

 

[RCHeliguy]

This suggests the 4080 may be 2 X 3080 and that the 4070 may be equal to the 3090.

 

[Deleted member 197115]

This suggests the 4080 may be 2 X 3080

Why not name it RTX-6160 then?

The funny part that without VR it's an absolute overkill, there are no games that can fully utilize RTX-3080Ti.

 

[Terry Rock]

I am in the 'hold to see what happens' camp on GPUs.
With much lower demand this time out, there is a much better chance to score what you want...given patience.
Chances are...people won't be able to buy an Nvidia 4000 or AMD 7000 series within the first two months, due to the 'new shine' buying craze.
Wait a while.
Remember the whole issue with crashing when certain RTX3000 series cards were released?
We were inundated with info about MLCC and SP-CAPs for quite some time.
As to new cards....
Pricing versus performance as always, will be the determining factor.
If Nvidia releases an RTX4070 at say $500-600... (even with the reported 10 GB buffer) it'll go on the list.
If AMD does something similar (performance-wise) but with less power draw and more VRAM, it'll immediately replace that 4070 option.
The way I view it... I've waited a long time for a better option to the current stand-in GTX1060. Waiting another few months won't matter that much.
In any event... the new and used current generation inventory will last for quite some time and continue to see price reductions due to lower demand.
I don't mind buying a 12 or 16 GB current gen from either company should the upcoming gen prove elusive or be badly priced.

 

[blekenbleu]

there are no games that can fully utilize RTX-3080Ti.

History shows software eventually metastasizing to consume available processing power.

 

[gamma123152]

Why not name it RTX-6160 then?

The funny part that without VR it's an absolute overkill, there are no games that can fully utilize RTX-3080Ti.

It's a known fact that the 4090 is only developed for VR enthusiasts

 

[Jan Larsen]

The funny part that without VR it's an absolute overkill, there are no games that can fully utilize RTX-3080Ti.

ACC devs: 'Hold my beer!'...

 

[RCHeliguy]

ACC devs: 'Hold my beer!'...

We need simulated bugs splattering on the windows so badly!

 

[Jan Larsen]

The funny part that without VR it's an absolute overkill, there are no games that can fully utilize RTX-3080Ti.

Actually, using a bit more of my, arguably, too much free time, it actually turns out a 3090 Ti is only able to max out at about 120fps in 4k in ACC. Theoretically it means it could be brought to its knees with triple 4k monitors.
Unreal engine engineers sitting proudly around the table knowing that no card in existance today can fully utilize their engine to the max

 

[Deleted member 197115]

ACC devs: 'Hold my beer!'...

I have no issues running ACC all maxed out on G9 (5120 x 1440) ~100fps using 3080Ti and it's CPU that holds it back, not GPU as with DLSS fps stays the same.

 

[Jan Larsen]

Yeah, but thats not using the full potential of that monitor. That baby can crank out 240hz, running it at 100fps is almost blasphemy

 

[RasmusP]

Yeah, but thats not using the full potential of that monitor. That baby can crank out 240hz, running it at 100fps is almost blasphemy

Quadrupling resolution and refresh rate means 16x needed performance though...
That would mean 8 years according to Moore's law, but since we're nearing the limit of the standard silicon stuff, it's a bit of a problem...
Displays developed a lot quicker than in the past, so hardware has to catch up now.

Or in other words, these monitors aren't meant to run modern triple AAA titles at full resolution, max Hz and max settings.
They can do multiple great things and you have to choose which ones you want.

 

[RCHeliguy]

But if a setting goes to 11 people won't be happy until they turn it to 11 !