BREAKING: 2020 AUSTRALIAN FORMULA 1 GP CANCELLED

[BrunoBæ]

In Italy we are already at saturation level after 2 weeks. If we proceed at this rate, our hospitals said, we will have to choose who to cure and who to leave to his destiny.

The danish press are reporting that your italian hospitals does allready now have to make a prioritisation of who can get a respirator and who does not.
Because the hospitals have allready run out of these.
And Denmark could be at the same stage in 1 or 2 weeks.
The german health autorities does admit that eventhough Germany has the most respirators per population in Europe then if the spread rate is the same as now they have only a few weeks before they also have to make such prioritisations.

 

[guidofoc]

1. My only point was that death rate isn't everything. Johns Hopkins is now saying it's between 0.1 (seasonal flu and 0.6). Following the trend line, this number will only lower with time and more data.
2. Our immune system is fairly robust even when seeing something new for the first time.
3. There are numerous trials underway that are promising. In some cases existing drugs have been used successfully to combat Covid-19. Here's a summary from a month ago: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00444-3
4. My point is that the flu primarily causes viral pneumonia. It is not unique to Coronavirus.
5. Best of luck to you as well.

Sorry to prolong this but:
1) Whenever there is an emergency in the healthcare system of a country this means the aggressiveness of a virus is not standard, so no matter how projections put this mortality rate, it is a fact that it is happening in a short time and to many people. Not sure how that does not matter and for some reason it's all fine.
2) Our immune system is fairly robust but we have vaccines for a reason. Or are you an anti-vax?
3) I checked the article you pointed to but nowhere it says that anything is coming to the market shortly. In terms of vaccines all declarations i have read talk about a 1+ year wait time. Therapies may have a shorter time but this is not a movie, trials take time (as it is also stated in the article).
4) Uniqueness or not, there's a flood of patiens in intensive care in Italy with viral pneumonia, which is not normal, not at all. If you want to win the argument on whether it's unique, be my guest.

 

[Paul Glover]

Still no official word, but....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1238210568009498625

 

[Paul Glover]

There appears to be much confusion...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1238211454207242241

 

[Slowdive]

Sorry to prolong this but:
1) Whenever there is an emergency in the health system of a country this means the aggressiveness of a virus is not standard, so no matter how projections put this mortality rate, it is a fact that it is happening in a short time and to many people. Not sure how that does not matter and for some reason it's all fine.
2) Our immune system is fairly robust but we have vaccines for a reason. Or are you an anti-vax?
3) I checked the article you pointed to but nowhere it says that anything is coming to the market shortly. In terms of vaccines all declarations i have read talk about a 1+ year wait time. Therapies may have a shorter time but this is not a movie, trials take time (as it is also stated in the article).
4) Uniqueness or not, there's a flood of patiens in intensive care in Italy with viral pneumonia, which is not normal, not at all. If you want to win the argument on whether it's unique, be my guest.

1. The data on the aggressiveness is also sketchy. Until we have good scientific data, we can't say for certain. Making decisions that are not grounded in reality is dangerous.
2. A small portion of the population gets vaccinated against the flu on any given year and yet the vast majority of people survive without it. That's my point. I got my flu shot. Did you?
3. The estimates are that within a few months there should be a vaccine available. The article I provided talked about successful treatments and numerous studies underway.
4. I understand that the health care system in certain areas is saturated. I believe that furthers my argument that you should not create a panic if it's not warranted. I can guarantee you that a large portion of those patients flooding the system have the seasonal flu, who have turned up out of an abudance of caution and fear generated by the media and politicians.

 

[guidofoc]

1. The data on the aggressiveness is also sketchy. Until we have good scientific data, we can't say for certain. Making decisions that are not grounded in reality is dangerous.
2. A small portion of the population gets vaccinated against the flu on any given year and yet the vast majority of people survive without it. That's my point. I got my flu shot. Did you?
3. The estimates are that within a few months there should be a vaccine available. The article I provided talked about successful treatments and numerous studies underway.
4. I understand that the health care system in certain areas is saturated. I believe that furthers my argument that you should not create a panic if it's not warranted. I can guarantee you that a large portion of those patients flooding the system have the seasonal flu, who have turned up out of an abudance of caution and fear generated by the media and politicians.

I won't reply to your points because I think i have made my points clear. But the logic you present that we should wait for "good scientific data" in the face of a factual emergency is, I am sorry, ridiculous. In any case, I welcome your optimism but I can report that the reality here in Italy is not the same. Of course I hope there is a therapy and quickly because I have a family and a job and they're both in danger now.

 

[Slowdive]

I won't reply to your points because I think i have made my points clear. But the logic you present that we should "wait for good scientific data" in the face of a factual emergency is, I am sorry, ridiculous. In any case, I welcome your optimism but I can report that the reality here in Italy is not the same. Of course I hope there is a therapy and quickly because I have a family and a job and they're both at risk now.

It's understandable. In psychology it's well known that humans are predisposed toward pessimism. I believe this has to do with evolutionary psychology. The cave man that heard a rustle in the bush and assumed it was a tiger, lived, the one who thought that it was just the wind and that everything would be fine, never made it to procreate.

We should revisit this conversation in a few months and have a good chuckle. Take care.

 

[FinFan]

That sounds completely reasonable, however the problem with that is that when the next virus hits that is actually worth worrying about, you have conditioned the population that the warnings are probably yet another false alarm and as a result you have a lower level of compliance. You really shouldn't hit the panic button unless it's absolutely necessary.

The other side of the coin is that you only press the button when it no longer makes a difference. And the stakes for this game are human lives. And you work under the assumption this virus is not worth worrying about. I respect that opinion but, again, if it turns out you're wrong, people have died.
And tell the odds of that virus killing you is less than with the general flu to those who already lost someone and see if they find comfort in that.
But I agree with your last sentence at #106.

 

[Bram Hengeveld]

According to the Dutch F1 presenter the organization committee said the GP weekend is happening.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1238216489402073090

 

[Slowdive]

I can report that the reality here in Italy is not the same.

Oh BTW, one interesting thing that I heard suggested that perhaps the reason Italy is suffering a bit more than elsewhere is due to the prevalence of smoking there, which has a significant impact on outcomes. Interesting hypothesis.

 

[PegaMixel]

Nothing is official yet, guys. No "yes" or "no". Just be patient, we will find out soon enough.

 

[FinFan]

Just checked the Formula one homepage. No confirmation that it's canceled. Clock says GP weekend starts in 2h46m.
For me that looks more like they are going.

 

[muzikant]

FIAsco

 

[guidofoc]

Oh BTW, one interesting thing that I heard suggested that perhaps the reason Italy is suffering a bit more than elsewhere is due to the prevalence of smoking there, which has a significant impact on outcomes. Interesting hypothesis.

No idea. I don't know how much they smoke but the area by far most affected in Italy is also the most developed one, the richest one. It is a big stretch of flat land surrounded by mountains, where the core of the Italian economy resides (Milan and its satellite cities, the Veneto region with hundreds of small-medium size companies etc). One would imagine that the abundance of contacts with China may have been a reason, but other regions in Europe have the same level of contacts. Maybe just bad luck then. It's a relatively polluted area due to the high industrial development and the geography of the area. There is no structural deficiency in the healthcare system of that region (unlike other areas of Italy) so it is reacting in an orderly manner. The government has tried for weeks to avoid panic but faced with an overwhelming amount of new cases had to take harsh decisions (schools closed, work from home, illegal to move out of your city unless motivated, all shops closed except for necessities, etc). Now, of course if a relatively rich region of Europe has such a crisis, that sounds an alarm, doesn't it.

 

[Jenn Cutter]

10hrs+ since F1's "Our priority is the safety of the fans, the teams and all personnel at the race." Currently there remains no official word on cancellation & fans are pooled outside the gates. Appalling crisis management.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1238230469994401792

 

[rubaru]

No idea. I don't know how much they smoke but the area by far most affected in Italy is also the most developed one, the richest one. It is a big stretch of flat land surrounded by mountains, where the core of the Italian economy resides (Milan and its satellite cities, the Veneto region with hundreds of small-medium size companies etc). One would imagine that the abundance of contacts with China may have been a reason, but other regions in Europe have the same level of contacts. Maybe just bad luck then. There is no structural deficiency in the healthcare system of that region (unlike other areas of Italy) so it is reacting in an orderly manner. The government has tried for weeks to avoid panic but faced with an overwhelming amount of new cases had to take harsh decisions (schools closed, work from home, illegal to move out of your city unless motivated, all shops closed except for necessities, etc). Now, of course if a relatively rich region of Europe has such a crisis, that sounds an alarm, doesn't it.
View attachment 355016

Curious how this area is the home of Ferrari and Alpha Tauri.

 

[Slowdive]

No idea. I don't know how much they smoke but the area by far most affected in Italy is also the most developed one, the richest one. It is a big stretch of flat land surrounded by mountains, where the core of the Italian economy resides (Milan and its satellite cities, the Veneto region with hundreds of small-medium size companies etc). One would imagine that the abundance of contacts with China may have been a reason, but other regions in Europe have the same level of contacts. Maybe just bad luck then. There is no structural deficiency in the healthcare system of that region (unlike other areas of Italy) so it is reacting in an orderly manner. The government has tried for weeks to avoid panic but faced with an overwhelming amount of new cases had to take harsh decisions (schools closed, work from home, illegal to move out of your city unless motivated, all shops closed except for necessities, etc). Now, of course if a relatively rich region of Europe has such a crisis, that sounds an alarm, doesn't it.

In California one of the places with the highest incidents of breast cancer in the world turned out to be one of the most affluent counties in the country. For years people couldn't figure out why this was the case, but as it turns out it all had to do with extensive screening. I would suspect if people have more access to health care and better health care, they are going to use it at a higher rate. That could be what's happening there.

 

[rubaru]

10hrs+ since F1's "Our priority is the safety of the fans, the teams and all personnel at the race." Currently there remains no official word on cancellation & fans are pooled outside the gates. Appalling crisis management.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1238230469994401792

Having loads of fans queued outside the gates would seem to be more of a health issue than actually letting them in. After all, crowds are what we've been told to avoid.

 

[guidofoc]

I am reading on the autosport forum that Vettel and Raikkonen are already on a flight home?

 

[muzikant]

I don't think the race will continue. is my feeling