I find it hard to place Vettel anywhere in F1 right now.
He would not go back to Red Bull and play second fiddle to Max, and so both Red Bull and Scudaria AlphaTauri whatever they're called these day are out.
Since parting with Alonso, McLaren have invested in two young drivers and are progressing well. I don't see them abandoning that project for Vettel to come in, especiallyy given a. Vettel's coming to the end of his F1 racing days and is off the boil, b. Sainz and Norris have proven themselves and are the future. c. It didn't work out well with Alonso .
Neither AlfaSauber, Racing Pink, or Haas have the money.
He would not go to Williams. If they were his only option i think we'd quicker see him in LMP or DTM.
Which leaves Renault or Mercedes. So how could that play out?
Well, one obvious answer is Ricciardo goes to Maranello and Seb joins Renault. It's likely Vettel would get on with Prost, at least to begin with, and Daniel would relish the thought of driving for Ferrari, but ... do they want him?
But. And here's the really juicy option..... If Lewis want's to win a title for Ferrari, now would be the time for him to make the switch. YES... i know Lewis is very happy at Mercedes, and YES i know he has a good two or three more WDC to be had if he stays there. But hear me out on this one.
Lewis could win a shortened 2020 WDC and equal Michael's record ( not a stretch to acknowledge he could easily already have 8 titles) but there's a good chance end of 2020 he'll have seven. That said, the current Ferrari is not far off the current Merc, depending on circuit demands of traction, aero, straighline speed, the normal early part of the season favours the Ferrari, and a few races in the 3/4, while the midseason and tail end favour the Merc. But... with no changes in tech / spec regs for 2021. It's likel the disparity between the two teams will eather remain the same, or reduce, nett result, Lewis in a Ferrari would be just as quick, if not quicker than Bottas and Ocon in a Merc.
Lewis is probabl going to equal Michael's record, and, being the only driver in 20 years to win WDC with more than one team, if he moved to Ferrari and managed to win the 2021 WDC he'd become only the second driver to win WDC in more than two teams, the other being Fangio.
There's no doubt Lewis would want to drive for Ferrari at some point, what driver doesn't want to do that, and he likely imagined it would be in three or four years. But.... if he goes now he has the best chance of getting a WDC for the Scuderia before the big 2022 changes. If he waits, then chances are Ferrari will sign someone else and the seat taken for a while, and, in 2022 Ferrari could be on the back foot.
Leaving Mercedes at the end of 2020 would be walking away from a great thing, and a HUGE move, but let's not forget Lewis walked away from McLaren when they were a winning team, and Mercedes was not. I suppose it all depends how much he want's to become one of onl two drivers to win WDC in three teams, and imho 2021 would be his best chance of acheiving that.
If Binotto gets on the phone to Lewis, and he tells Toto he's off, will Toto then call Seb to fill the seat? Or promote Ocon?