Sunflares will hit the earth tomorrow

[Hampus Andersson]

But... It doesn't... NASA has said nothing of the sorts, it's the article. LOL.


But... They didn't... It was a risk assessment study, for a potential severe solar storm... The article added the 2012 catastrophe bullshit, and that's where my problem lies.

Original is here: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12507

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
Right: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.
It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.
"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.


NASA

"We calculated wrong - Michio Kaku"

$1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery.

This could happen in 2012. Is that not considered a catastrophy that could happen?

"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."

 

[Bram Hengeveld]

Earth laughs about money

 

[Senad Subasic]

High tech infrastructure. Satellites. Not really a catastrophe for the regular Joe? Companies will have huge losses, yes, but I think us common folk will manage to survive without satellite TV or GPS for at least a week!

Also, very bad (useless) money comparison with Katrina there. Building and launching a single satellite costs (random guesstimate) like a thousand houses. So 5 satellites down is equal in damage as 5 thousand homes. 5 satellites is really not a catastrophe, 5 thousand homeless families is.

The study the original article "reported on" has a much larger event in mind. They are mentioning damages of basic infrastructure; electricity supply, gas supply, water supply.

 

[Bram Hengeveld]

We will not get extincted when that happens either. Only a catastrophic volcanic eruption, a meteorite or anything else that will polute the entire atmosphere will end life as we know it.

Then we need to wait at least 100 to 250 million years again until we will be able to invent sim racing again

Lets hope we look like this by then so we can race multi-multiplayer with a lot of hands.

 

[Hampus Andersson]

High tech infrastructure. Satellites. Not really a catastrophe for the regular Joe? Companies will have huge losses, yes, but I think us common folk will manage to survive without satellite TV or GPS for at least a week!

And what about your fridge, your freezer... bet you can live without those as well
Sattellite - TV - GPS - possibly airplanes crashing is what would happen with a relatively small solar wind.
With a relatively big one it could take out everything electrical meaning power stations etc so you would have no electricity to power your home meaning you would have to sleep in your winter jacket unless you live in a warm place.

And let´s not forget things like food riots. Only sustainable food is vacuum packed as everything else would get old in a matter of days.

Also, very bad (useless) money comparison with Katrina there. Building and launching a single satellite costs (random guesstimate) like a thousand houses. So 5 satellites down is equal in damage as 5 thousand homes. 5 satellites is really not a catastrophe, 5 thousand homeless families is.

The study the original article "reported on" has a much larger event in mind. They are mentioning damages of basic infrastructure; electricity supply, gas supply, water supply.

Read above, and second, if that comparison is useless then by all means go search for a job at NASA they could really use you it seems.

Fact is that with a big enough solarwind it could wipe out everything electrical. That is the kryptonite to a massive city.
It would be like living as cavemen fighting for food with military trying to keep large masses of people at bay because they want to gather food for themselves. Martial law would be incorporated in the states that have it i´m sure. Or atleast a "State of Emergency"

You won´t exactly be able to walk in the store and put some dollars on the counter and then walk out.
Economics will take a massive hit as well.

Again, this is worst case scenario but it could happen in 2012-2013. They do know that they counted wrong and that the ones coming will be much more severe then early predictions.

So we should treat Solar winds in the same way we treat earthquakes, tsunamis, meteorites etc.

they might not cause harm directly to the human but it will do it indirectly through other means.

 

[Hampus Andersson]

Just take the airplane situation. There is around 3.500 airplanes in the air at the same in the US alone.
There´s even more, possibly double during specific hours during the day.

Now imagine 3.500 airplanes up in the air and a solar wind hits the earth causing those planes to crash.

Just that would be a catastrophe in itself.

 

[Senad Subasic]

And what about your fridge, your freezer... bet you can live without those as well

Well, people have managed for thousands of years, I think we might be able to adapt. But where above did you see those mentioned?

Sattellite - TV - GPS - possibly airplanes crashing is what would happen with a relatively small solar wind.

How exactly do you think it would crash airplanes?
If you mean directly messing up their electrical systems, that's not going to happen. Airplanes are huge Faraday cages. They get routinely hit by lightnings.
If you mean indirectly by messing up GPS satellites, also not likely. GPS is a relatively new thing, airplanes have been flying without it for quite some time.

Source?

With a relatively big one it could take out everything electrical meaning power stations etc so you would have no electricity to power your home meaning you would have to sleep in your winter jacket unless you live in a warm place.

Yes, as I said above, the original article was a risk assessment for a huge event. Not this.

And let´s not forget things like food riots. Only sustainable food is vacuum packed as everything else would get old in a matter of days.

You're again assuming a huge event, which this is nowhere near.

Read above, and second, if that comparison is useless then by all means go search for a job at NASA they could really use you it seems.

Are you joking? You really don't see the idiocy in comparing damages to satellites and damages to houses?
10 satellites is comparable to 10.000 homeless people?

Fact is that with a big enough solarwind it could wipe out everything electrical. That is the kryptonite to a massive city.

I have never disagreed with that.

Again, this is worst case scenario but it could happen in 2012-2013.

No, it could not. Worst case scenario is as you posted above, no GPS, no satellite TV.

So we should treat Solar winds in the same way we treat earthquakes, tsunamis, meteorites etc.

And how do we treat those? They just are.

There are hundreds of earthquakes every single day, and about 1 earthquake a year is huge.
If we use the same logarithmic scale to solar storms (I have no basis for that, just playing with numbers), 1 in fifty thousand will be huge. So that's 1 in 500.000 years.

 

[Hampus Andersson]

Well, people have managed for thousands of years, I think we might be able to adapt. But where above did you see those mentioned?

Problem is we haven´t been living like that for several hundreds of years. Generations have been born in this city complex.
Give them a spade and they would look at you like you were an idiot.

How exactly do you think it would crash airplanes? GPS is a relatively new thing, airplanes have been flying without it for quite some time. Source?

Why do you think control towers exists? Because they have to keep check of 3.500 planes flying across each other paths.
Even with that there have been collisions between planes mid-air or planes landing/taking off.

All the electronic stuff in the cockpit would either die or give out wrong numbers so you could essentially be a 1000 feet above the ground when the meters say 20 000ft.
If the electronic dies it means the plane crashes because you have no electricity that controls fuel flow or any other important instruments.

You're again assuming a huge event, which this is nowhere near.

I´m not. I´m saying the chance of it is there. Which it is.

Are you joking? You really don't see the idiocy in comparing damages to satellites and damages to houses?

Again you fail to understand. Why are you so focused on sattelites? Imagine a whole city with no electricity for months.
the effects would be more or less the same except for some damaged houses and water.

Compare Katrina to a country like the USA and you realise the comparison isn´t as idiotic as you first think...

No, it could not. Worst case scenario is as you posted above, no GPS, no satellite TV.

Nope, a big enough solar wind could take out cities, airplanes, satellites you name it.
There was for example a similar thing happening in South Africa where several power stations got shut down.
And that was from solar winds that was normal ones...

And how do we treat those? They just are.

Ask NASA they know.

There are hundreds of earthquakes every single day, and about 1 earthquake a year is huge.
If we use the same logarithmic scale to solar flares (I have no basis for that, just playing with numbers), 1 in fifty thousand will be huge. So that's 1 in 500.000 years.

Oh but you forgot one little tiny bit of information. These hundreds of earthquakes are so small you can barely feel them..
It´s that 1 out of 100 that causes catastrophic events..

You can´t predict earthquakes. You can get an idea of when it will erupt but you can´t say "on this day that earthquake will blow"

There are several Volcanos in the US alone that could wipe out massive cities.
Here´s a list of volcanoes only in the US.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanoes_in_the_United_States

Some are small, some are massive, some would cause little damage some would cause massive damage.
Some are expected to stay calm for thousands of years to come and some have even passed their expected erupt-date.

 

[Hampus Andersson]

Source for Airplanes in the air. flightaware.com

These do not account for military planes or other smaller planes which could be around a thousand more.

 

[Senad Subasic]

All the electronic stuff in the cockpit would either die or give out wrong numbers so you could essentially be a 1000 feet above the ground when the meters say 20 000ft.
If the electronic dies it means the plane crashes because you have no electricity that controls fuel flow or any other important instruments.

This is just not true. Did you not read the Faraday cage/lightning comment?
GPS will be useless, but nothing else would be harmed.

EDIT: did you not see Richard Hammond getting hit by a lightning in a freaking Polo? And both he and the car survived?

Again you fail to understand. Why are you so focused on sattelites?

Because that's what you quoted above as your argument for a catastrophe?
Because that's the worst thing that's going to happen in 2012/2013?

Compare Katrina to a country like the USA and you realise the comparison isn´t as idiotic as you first think...

I'm not following this.

There was for example a similar thing happening in South Africa where several power stations got shut down.
And that was from solar winds that was normal ones...

Source please.

Oh but you forgot one little tiny bit of information. These hundreds of earthquakes are so small you can barely feel them..

As opposed to solar storms? Remember the huge catastrophe we had in 2001? Or 1990? Those were some hard times indeed.

 

[Hampus Andersson]

This is just not true. Did you not read the Faraday cage/lightning comment?
GPS will be useless, but nothing else would be harmed.

GPS, Radar everything will be useless. You think it can knock out power stations on the ground, satellites, telecommunication etc yet airplanes will continue like nothing happened? Same electricity in airplanes as in everything else.

Because that's what you quoted above as your argument for a catastrophe?
Because that's the worst thing that's going to happen in 2012/2013?

No i and you said those would be affected in "normal" solar winds.
I never said the Solar winds coming in 2012/13 WILL cause catastrophe, i said they CAN.

I'm not following this.

I´m not sure you follow anything at this point.

Source please.

Michio Kaku, news guest. Look on youtube there are a few different news sites.

As opposed to solar storms? Remember the huge catastrophe we had in 2001? Or 1990? Those were some hard times indeed.

I just gave you an answer on your hysteric earthquake numbers saying that most are not dangerous.
Some are. Just like Solar winds.

Remember this and remember that? There are thousands of events you could list that were "hard times"

All in all its safe to say you don´t take solar winds seriously, which is strange because if a big enough solar wind hits the earth it will cause a catastrophe in it´s own way. both physcially and economically, more economically then Katrina for example.

 

[Senad Subasic]

GPS, Radar everything will be useless. You think it can knock out power stations on the ground, satellites, telecommunication etc yet airplanes will continue like nothing happened? Same electricity in airplanes as in everything else.

I'm sorry, I assumed you were aware that there's a difference between a conducting line, and a closed conducting surface.

Again, see Richard Hammond in the mighty Polo. Both he and the car survived a lightning strike. And yet, your phone and power lines and, god forbid, router and the rest of your hardware would not survive a lightning strike.

I´m not sure you follow anything at this point.

Michio Kaku, news guest. Look on youtube there are a few different news sites.

No, I'm sorry, that's not how it usually goes. If you're not going to provide a source to back that up, I surely won't be searching the web for it.

I just gave you an answer on your hysteric earthquake numbers saying that most are not dangerous.

Hysteric earthquake numbers? What's hysteric about them?

Also, that was kinda my point. Most are not dangerous at all, just one in god knows how many a year is catastrophic. And here you draw a parallel to the mighty solar flares.

All in all its safe to say you don´t take solar winds seriously, which is strange because if a big enough solar wind hits the earth it will cause a catastrophe in it´s own way. both physcially and economically, more economically then Katrina for example.

It's not that I don't take them seriously, I just can't do **** about them. If it happens, it happens. A tin foil hat won't do much good, but you go right ahead.

On the other hand, crappy articles that take a meaningless sentence from a 144 page study, and transform it into a 'run for your liveeees' thing, you're right, I do not take seriously.

 

[Bram Hengeveld]

You can´t predict earthquakes. You can get an idea of when it will erupt but you can´t say "on this day that earthquake will blow"

Since when do earthquakes errupt?

 

[Bram Hengeveld]

There are several Volcanos in the US alone that could wipe out massive cities.
Here´s a list of volcanoes only in the US.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanoes_in_the_United_States

Some are small, some are massive, some would cause little damage some would cause massive damage.
Some are expected to stay calm for thousands of years to come and some have even passed their expected erupt-date.

You only need to worry about one volcanic area in the US and that is Yellow Stone. When she fully blows nobody on the NA continent will stand a chance. Its a potential super volcano with catastrophic proportions.

All the others are similar to Mt Saint Helens (or less) and will only cause damage in the near surrounding areas. After the 1980 blow and eruption Seattle was still there right?

 

[Hampus Andersson]

I'm sorry, I assumed you were aware that there's a difference between a conducting line, and a closed conducting surface.

Again, see Richard Hammond in the mighty Polo. Both he and the car survived a lightning strike. And yet, your phone and power lines and, god forbid, router and the rest of your hardware would not survive a lightning strike.

Are you comparing lighting now to solar winds? And cars to airplanes?

No, I'm sorry, that's not how it usually goes. If you're not going to provide a source to back that up, I surely won't be searching the web for it.

Then i guess you have to wait since i´m doing other stuff now but i can promise you it´s on youtube, all you have to do is search for Michio Kaku 2012, you don´t even have to write the full name, imagine that

Hysteric earthquake numbers? What's hysteric about them?

You

Also, that was kinda my point. Most are not dangerous at all, just one in god knows how many a year is catastrophic. And here you draw a parallel to the mighty solar flares.

Exactly... And yet you still brush it off as there would never be a catastrophic event caused by Solar Winds.
You change your way of thinking when you go from earthquakes to Solarwinds even though you just condluded that they are simliar in a way.

It's not that I don't take them seriously, I just can't do **** about them. If it happens, it happens. A tin foil hat won't do much good, but you go right ahead.

And this is different to an earthquake how? Is it a reason not to take them seriously?
You seem to have that hat strapped on tight from where i´m looking.

On the other hand, crappy articles that take a meaningless sentence from a 144 page study, and transform it into a 'run for your liveeees' thing, you're right, I do not take seriously.

I think you are the only one transforming it into that. Which was the main cause for my reply to you right from the start.

Relax, nobody is wearing a tin foil hat and nobody expects the world to end in 2012 like you obviously assume we do.

I´m just stating what would happen if a big enough solarwind would hit the earth.

 

[Bram Hengeveld]

Killer waiting, when the earth starts to shake there: run Forrest ruuuuuuuuuuun.

What I would give to be present when she goes. Epic!

 

[Hampus Andersson]

You only need to worry about one volcanic area in the US and that is Yellow Stone. When she fully blows nobody on the NA continent will stand a chance. Its a potential super volcano with catastrophic proportions.

All the others are similar to Mt Saint Helens (or less) and will only cause damage in the near surrounding areas. After the 1980 blow and eruption Seattle was still there right?

That´s the one, i was looking for that one but totally forgot it´s name Thanks Bram!

 

[Hampus Andersson]

Since when do earthquakes errupt?

What´s the correct term then? Explode?

Edit: haha nevermind, Volcanoes i mean obviously

 

[Bram Hengeveld]

And this the other one we should seriously worry about but which media keep silent reporting about it. The Anak Krakatoa. Has had a mega erruption in 1883 that sent the entire earth into darkness for a few days.

On the place of the caldera there is now again forming a MEGA volcano where to mega faultlines meet. This has the potential to make a lot of victims in the near future and cause a tsunami we have never seen before.

A third immediate thread is the island of Cumbre Vieja at the Canary Islands that is so unstable that 1/6 of the island might fall into the atlantic ocean in westward direction that will cause a mega tsunami hitting the shores of the US, Mexico etc. 100 foot waves and higher will whipe out the entire coastal area as it exists today!

Enough scary stories for now. Time to do some sim racing

 

[Hampus Andersson]

"The explosion is considered to be the loudest sound ever heard in modern history, with reports of it being heard nearly 3,000 miles (4,800 km) from its point of origin. The shock wave from the explosion was recorded on barographs around the globe."

:eek: