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Vettel winning WDC in Singapore - The Mathematics?

Discussion in 'Formula 1' started by Chris Jenkins, Sep 21, 2011.

  1. Chris Jenkins

    Chris Jenkins
    Driving til the wheels fall off

    OK, so we all know that unfortunately, Vettel can win the championship this weekend in Singapore.
    My question is (to all that are good with maths), what scenarios have to take place for this to happen?

    Can anyone work out the potential race results that will lead to the fight being over?

    If so, post them up please :)
     
  2. For Vettel to knock his opponents out of the title race:

    If Vettel wins:

    Alonso must finish no higher than fourth
    Button must finish no higher than third
    Webber must finish no higher than third

    If Vettel finishes second:

    Alonso must finish no higher than eighth
    Button must finish no higher than fifth
    Webber must finish no higher than fifth
    Hamilton must finish no higher than third

    If Vettel finishes third:

    Alonso must finish no higher than ninth
    Button must finish no higher than seventh
    Webber must finish no higher than seventh
    Hamilton must finish no higher than fourth

    If Vettel finishes fourth:

    Alonso can still win title
    Button must not finish higher than eighth
    Webber must not finish higher than eighth
    Hamilton must not finish higher than fifth

    If Vettel finishes fifth:

    Alonso can still win title
    Button must finish no higher than ninth
    Webber must finish no higher than ninth
    Hamilton must finish no higher than sixth

    If Vettel finishes sixth:

    Alonso can still win title
    Button must finish no higher than eleventh
    Webber must finish no higher than eleventh
    Hamilton must finish no higher than seventh

    If Vettel finishes seventh:

    Alonso can still win title
    Button can still win title
    Webber can still win title
    Hamilton must finish no higher than eighth

    If Vettel finishes eighth:

    Alonso can still win title
    Button can still win title
    Webber can still win title
    Hamilton must finish no higher than ninth

    If Vettel finishes ninth:

    Alonso can still win title
    Button can still win title
    Webber can still win title
    Hamilton must finish no higher than tenth

    If Vettel finishes tenth:

    Alonso can still win title
    Button can still win title
    Webber can still win title
    Hamilton must finish no higher than ninth
     
  3. Gavin Hendley

    Gavin Hendley
    Meta-SIM-morphosing

    Vettel to win. Which leaves 5 races left with a total 125points up for grabs. there is a 112 gap now so all he needs is a 13 points over second place and it over. If Hamilton, Button, Webber or Alonso fail to finish second it's all over.
    Personally I think Vettel will not finish this race it's just a gut feeling.
     
  4. There are many different combinations, but here's the short breakdown. For Vettel to be unassailable, the following must happen:

    Vettel must win.
    Alonso must come no better than 4th.
    Button and Webber must both come no better than 3rd.

    And now for some rather interesting points:

    If at Singapore Vettel wins and Alonso comes 4th, then if Vettel is completely out of the points for every remaining race this year, and if Alonso wins every remaining race, then it would be a precise draw for the WDC with 309 points tied.

    If at Singapore Vettel wins and Webber or Button comes 2nd, then if Vettel is completely out of the points for every remaining race this year, and if Webber/Button wins every remaining race, then Webber/Button would win by just 1 point.

    If one out of Alonso, Button or Webber wins every single remaining race, including Singapore, then Vettel need only average a P6 result in the remaining races to still win the WDC. Note that Vettel has not come as low as P6 in any race this year. Obviously, he's got it.

    EDIT: Okay, so while I was writing mine, Adam did the detailed version. I think we're covered.
     
  5. What if vettel crashes and gets injured and is out for the remaining races how likely is it that someone else could take the title?
     
  6. "Likely" is not the best word to use here, because we're talking probabilities and a precise calculation of what is "likely" is impossible.

    If Vettel is permanently sidelined before or during the Singapore race, then it's possible one of Alonso, Webber, Button, or Hamilton could pick up the WDC. It would require one of them to have an excellent winning streak of 5 races, or in Hamilton's case, 6 races. So I guess in the sense you're asking, it's "unlikely", but by how much I don't know.
     
  7. Chris Jenkins

    Chris Jenkins
    Driving til the wheels fall off

    Maybe McLaren can use their new technical agreement with Virgin to fabricate a "colision" with Vettel? :tongue: kidding
     
  8. my birthday is on Sunday and if Hamilton or Button wins then it will make my day lol
     
  9. I think Vettel will take the championship here because he got the fastest car on the grid and will be driving in a track that suites this car well. Even if Alonso, Webber or Button would finish in a position to allow them to keep fighting for the championship I wouldn't expect them to win the title except if Vettel gets a bad injury (I hope it will never happen) or if one of those three drivers gets a perfect winning strike of 6 races.

    With formula 1 everything is possable but there is to little chans that Vettel can lose this championship.