Vettel winning WDC in Singapore - The Mathematics?

[Chris Jenkins]

OK, so we all know that unfortunately, Vettel can win the championship this weekend in Singapore.
My question is (to all that are good with maths), what scenarios have to take place for this to happen?

Can anyone work out the potential race results that will lead to the fight being over?

If so, post them up please

 

[Adam Eggbeer]

For Vettel to knock his opponents out of the title race:

If Vettel wins:

Alonso must finish no higher than fourth
Button must finish no higher than third
Webber must finish no higher than third

If Vettel finishes second:

Alonso must finish no higher than eighth
Button must finish no higher than fifth
Webber must finish no higher than fifth
Hamilton must finish no higher than third

If Vettel finishes third:

Alonso must finish no higher than ninth
Button must finish no higher than seventh
Webber must finish no higher than seventh
Hamilton must finish no higher than fourth

If Vettel finishes fourth:

Alonso can still win title
Button must not finish higher than eighth
Webber must not finish higher than eighth
Hamilton must not finish higher than fifth

If Vettel finishes fifth:

Alonso can still win title
Button must finish no higher than ninth
Webber must finish no higher than ninth
Hamilton must finish no higher than sixth

If Vettel finishes sixth:

Alonso can still win title
Button must finish no higher than eleventh
Webber must finish no higher than eleventh
Hamilton must finish no higher than seventh

If Vettel finishes seventh:

Alonso can still win title
Button can still win title
Webber can still win title
Hamilton must finish no higher than eighth

If Vettel finishes eighth:

Alonso can still win title
Button can still win title
Webber can still win title
Hamilton must finish no higher than ninth

If Vettel finishes ninth:

Alonso can still win title
Button can still win title
Webber can still win title
Hamilton must finish no higher than tenth

If Vettel finishes tenth:

Alonso can still win title
Button can still win title
Webber can still win title
Hamilton must finish no higher than ninth

 

[Gavin Hendley]

Vettel to win. Which leaves 5 races left with a total 125points up for grabs. there is a 112 gap now so all he needs is a 13 points over second place and it over. If Hamilton, Button, Webber or Alonso fail to finish second it's all over.
Personally I think Vettel will not finish this race it's just a gut feeling.

 

[Gary Corby]

There are many different combinations, but here's the short breakdown. For Vettel to be unassailable, the following must happen:

Vettel must win.
Alonso must come no better than 4th.
Button and Webber must both come no better than 3rd.

And now for some rather interesting points:

If at Singapore Vettel wins and Alonso comes 4th, then if Vettel is completely out of the points for every remaining race this year, and if Alonso wins every remaining race, then it would be a precise draw for the WDC with 309 points tied.

If at Singapore Vettel wins and Webber or Button comes 2nd, then if Vettel is completely out of the points for every remaining race this year, and if Webber/Button wins every remaining race, then Webber/Button would win by just 1 point.

If one out of Alonso, Button or Webber wins every single remaining race, including Singapore, then Vettel need only average a P6 result in the remaining races to still win the WDC. Note that Vettel has not come as low as P6 in any race this year. Obviously, he's got it.

EDIT: Okay, so while I was writing mine, Adam did the detailed version. I think we're covered.

 

[Luke McVicar]

What if vettel crashes and gets injured and is out for the remaining races how likely is it that someone else could take the title?

 

[Gary Corby]

What if vettel crashes and gets injured and is out for the remaining races how likely is it that someone else could take the title?

"Likely" is not the best word to use here, because we're talking probabilities and a precise calculation of what is "likely" is impossible.

If Vettel is permanently sidelined before or during the Singapore race, then it's possible one of Alonso, Webber, Button, or Hamilton could pick up the WDC. It would require one of them to have an excellent winning streak of 5 races, or in Hamilton's case, 6 races. So I guess in the sense you're asking, it's "unlikely", but by how much I don't know.

 

[Chris Jenkins]

Maybe McLaren can use their new technical agreement with Virgin to fabricate a "colision" with Vettel? :tongue: kidding

 

[Ellis Thomas]

my birthday is on Sunday and if Hamilton or Button wins then it will make my day lol

 

[ufunacaoenn]

I think Vettel will take the championship here because he got the fastest car on the grid and will be driving in a track that suites this car well. Even if Alonso, Webber or Button would finish in a position to allow them to keep fighting for the championship I wouldn't expect them to win the title except if Vettel gets a bad injury (I hope it will never happen) or if one of those three drivers gets a perfect winning strike of 6 races.

With formula 1 everything is possable but there is to little chans that Vettel can lose this championship.