Toto Wolfe is a clever guy

David O'Reilly · Jan 31, 2015

Has anyone else read his moves?

He announced that they were keen to re-sign Hamilton.
Then he announced thet should Hamilton not re-sign that they would be targetting Bottas or Alonso.

My view is that Toto is smart enough to see that they will win the WDC and the WCC with or without Hamilton. Rosberg would have been WDC if Hamilton was not there in 2014 and by a mile. In terms of WCC, they would have done so this year with anyone of maybe 6-8 drivers on the grid partnering Rosberg.

So my reading of the story is this.
Hamilton sees himself as a two time WDC and the fastest guy on the grid along with Fernando.
Ergo he should now get more money. Part of him also knows that he needs to be in the best car. Remember Senna went to Williams for a massive pay cut in 1994 to get himself in the fastest car.

Wolfe's view: He sees that his team will win the WDC and WCC in 2015 and probably in 2016 with or without Lewis. If he stays with Mercedes Benz Hamilton is assured of a 3rd WDC and maybe a 4th. Either way Hamiltons Legacy as a legend becomes assured. Hamilton doesnt need the money now its all about his respect and his legacy.

So who is in the strongest position. Will Hamilton ask himself "what would his idol Ayrton do?" or will he take the "Rock Star Approach".
Will Toto play hard but kind and get the pay deal back into a lower orbit.

I find it interesting.

Terry Rock · Jan 31, 2015

Nobody is 'guaranteed' anything in motorsport...the 2015 cars have not yet turned a wheel in 'anger'.
Mercedes left off well last season but who knows what the other players are bringing this year.
RedBull and Vettel are a classic example of that.
You still need two good, fast drivers and very reliable machinery to get it (WDC, WCC) done.
Neither Toto nor Lewis have any upper hand over each other in negotiations.
The Board of Directors at Mercedes Motorsports will ultimately be the one with the say-so at the end of the day.
They'll be keen to retain him unless he ask for something outrageous.
It's all about money after all.
They know he's their best candidate and it's about the law of returns vs pay-out.
His paycheck dwindles in comparison to what Mercedes can potentially make in just the ability to advertise 'they make the best road cars'.
It's just how business works.

David O'Reilly · Feb 4, 2015

With respect, the board of directors will (I think you will find) issue a total budget to the team principal.
He is then charged with deciding where to spend it within reason. IE New wind tunnel? New Engine Deal? Expensive driver? or maybe Reverse cashflow with pay driver?

Of course they will be keen to retain him unless he asks for something outrageous. Thats why its called a negotiation and of course its about money. It's the two peoples expectations and beliefs about value. That's what the thread is about.

What are RedBull and Vettel a classic example of?
There was a total change of cars and tech specs for 2014 so everything was unknown.
Mercedes Benz mastered it and won both title easily.

You are welcome to your opinion. Mine is that Lewis needs a winning car more than he needs cash.
If I was Toto I would offer him 2/3rds of his last deal. If he dosnt like it I will sign Bottas. Then I still have two not just "good fast drivers" but super talented drivers and 15-20 million in savings.
Thats how business works in f1. oh yes In my opinion. but it looks like 5 of 7 people agree.

Tony Holder · Feb 5, 2015

I feel that Mercedes Benz will offer Lewis a bigger package to stay, they know they already have the upper hand with the car being the fastest with the funding to back it up.

It just depends on Lewis and his ego. Surely other drivers will be watching with great interest - Bottas and Alonso.

David O'Reilly · Feb 5, 2015

Maybe Hulkenberg and Ricciardi too?

Tony Holder · Feb 5, 2015

Most definitive. But I do fear that the Hulk will never sit in one of the top teams cars.

Terry Rock · Feb 5, 2015

David O'Reilly said:
Has anyone else read his moves?
He announced that they were keen to re-sign Hamilton.
Then he announced that should Hamilton not re-sign that they would be targeting Bottas or Alonso.

My view is that Toto is smart enough to see that they will win the WDC and the WCC with or without Hamilton.

So my reading of the story is this.
Hamilton sees himself as a two time WDC and the fastest guy on the grid along with Fernando.
Ergo he should now get more money. Part of him also knows that he needs to be in the best car.

Wolfe's view: He sees that his team will win the WDC and WCC in 2015 and probably in 2016 with or without Lewis. If he stays with Mercedes Benz Hamilton is assured of a 3rd WDC and maybe a 4th. Either way Hamiltons Legacy as a legend becomes assured. Hamilton doesnt need the money now its all about his respect and his legacy.

So who is in the strongest position. Will Hamilton ask himself "what would his idol Ayrton do?" or will he take the "Rock Star Approach".
Will Toto play hard but kind and get the pay deal back into a lower orbit.

I find it interesting.

"Will I win the lottery?"

I ask, because you know the future based on how you've worded the above statements.
Nobody is 100 percent guaranteed to win anything in motorsport.
The chances are good Mercedes will come out on top.
It's just that... a good bet.
Just pointing that out.
As to Vettel...Nobody thought he and RBR would go a whole year (after 'waxing' everybody the previous year) without a single win... irrespective of new cars and regulation.
RBR was at the very top of their game.
You don't suddenly 'forget' how to build a car... and clearly they did not.
Daniel proved that.
Lewis and Nico could suddenly find themselves with a car they have issues with...just like Vettel.
It's highly unlikely...but still a possibility.
That what I meant.
As to Hamilton...you didn't have to say much more. It's how you said, what you said.
"Rock star approach"....really?
You'd offer 2/3 of his previous deal to a current WDC...one who everybody up and down pitlane whether they publicly say it or not would welcome in their car...some of which, with the right driver can closely matched Mercedes on track (re: Williams). You want to take that chance with a driver who can extract the very maximum to overcome deficits in the car's ability.
It'd be interesting to see him swap seats with Bottas and beat the 'factory team' with their own engine and pure ability.
In this 'cut-throat' day of business, Toto would have his job for about six month after that.
That my friend...is how business works.
Look around the F1 paddock and they're lots of examples.

David O'Reilly · Feb 5, 2015

Yes I would.
Its what Frank Williams did many times, Villeneuve, Hill, Mansell.
He helps make a champion then doesn't accept that he then has to pay him more BECAUSE he is that champion.
Did Senna make an error when he went to Williams basically for free in 1994. Apart obviously from the tragic outcome).
Personally I had every expectation that Vettel would do badly in the RB. He got very lucky for 4 years in a car that was unbeatable. Many many people confused that luck with sheer genius. I didnt. Ask Alonso who says " lets see how he goes in an average car?"
I have presented my views as either a question (post 1) or an opinion (post 2).
You seem to claim your opinions to be empirical fact. They aren't, they are just your opinions.

Its also obvious when I say this will happen that I mean in my view its very very likely this will happen. Because Its a sport. Glad you enjoy chatting about it.

Terry Rock · Feb 5, 2015

David O'Reilly said:
Yes I would.
Its what Frank Williams did many times, Villeneuve, Hill, Mansell.
He helps make a champion then doesn't accept that he then has to pay him more BECAUSE he is that champion.
Did Senna make an error when he went to Williams basically for free in 1994. Apart obviously from the tragic outcome).
Personally I had every expectation that Vettel would do badly in the RB. He got very lucky for 4 years in a car that was unbeatable. Many many people confused that luck with sheer genius. I didnt. Ask Alonso who says " lets see how he goes in an average car?"
I have presented my views as either a question (post 1) or an opinion (post 2).
You seem to claim your opinions to be empirical fact. They aren't, they are just your opinions.

Its also obvious when I say this will happen that I mean in my view its very very likely this will happen. Because Its a sport. Glad you enjoy chatting about it.

Terry Rock · Feb 5, 2015

David O'Reilly said:
Yes I would.
Its what Frank Williams did many times, Villeneuve, Hill, Mansell.
He helps make a champion then doesn't accept that he then has to pay him more BECAUSE he is that champion.
Did Senna make an error when he went to Williams basically for free in 1994. Apart obviously from the tragic outcome).
Personally I had every expectation that Vettel would do badly in the RB. He got very lucky for 4 years in a car that was unbeatable. Many many people confused that luck with sheer genius. I didnt. Ask Alonso who says " lets see how he goes in an average car?"
I have presented my views as either a question (post 1) or an opinion (post 2).
You seem to claim your opinions to be empirical fact. They aren't, they are just your opinions.

Its also obvious when I say this will happen that I mean in my view its very very likely this will happen. Because Its a sport. Glad you enjoy chatting about it.

Yeah! Look how good it worked for Frank.
It worked so well that he's finally climbing out of the arrogance hole he dug with that approach.
You couldn't have used a worst example if you tried.
As to my reply..."Where is the empirical fact?"
You sir... are the one claiming that Mercedes WILL win 100% win the WDC.
I'd say either you know nothing of mechanical unreliability in motorsport...or you have a very good crystal ball.
That my last on this subject.

David O'Reilly · Feb 5, 2015

Well you sir are the one who has started to attack the person rather than the position on this matter.
When you start to make accusations as to my knowledge or lack thereof you stray into a very unfortunate and unneccesary tactic.
As you have shown your true colours Ill upgrade my dissection of your post to amber level.

Nobody is 'guaranteed' anything in motorsport...the 2015 cars have not yet turned a wheel in 'anger'.
Yes I know, thats why its interesting to talk about what we might predict will happen.
Mercedes left off well last season but who knows what the other players are bringing this year.
We know that M/Benz have the best engine and that in 2014 they were unbeatable and took the title at a canter.
RedBull and Vettel are a classic example of that.
of what again? we saw a total rule and spec change for 2014 anything could happen for 2014.
You still need two good, fast drivers and very reliable machinery to get it (WDC, WCC) done.
Yes and there are very fast drivers who can be had for 1/3rd of Lewis salary. Any of the top 10 guys on the grid would have been WDC easily in 2014. Why but the #1 or #2?
Neither Toto nor Lewis have any upper hand over each other in negotiations.
And why not. As at today 78 % of voters disagree with you. Thats 11 of 14 votes.
The Board of Directors at Mercedes Motorsports will ultimately be the one with the say-so at the end of the day.
I didn't know that this board micro managed the F1 team. Do you know something I dont?
They'll be keen to retain him unless he ask for something outrageous.
And what is outrageous? He currently gets about £30m.
It's all about money after all.
Wow is it?
They know he's their best candidate and it's about the law of returns vs pay-out.
Please explain this law? I've never heard of it. Is it like cost benefit?
His paycheck dwindles in comparison to what Mercedes can potentially make in just the ability to advertise 'they make the best road cars'.
All managers are tasked with achieving set tasks within certain budget constraints. Its not a money is no object scenario. Also where is your evidence that winning the F1 title can advertise the road car being the best?
It's just how business works.
Somewhat paternalistic and arrogant to lecture strangers in how business works dont you think?

You sir... are the one claiming that Mercedes WILL win 100% win the WDC.
Where did I say that?

Kjell Eilertsen · Feb 10, 2015

I voted Hamilton, a while back, but reading through this thread I have to say I change my mind slightly, I kinda agree with @David O'Reilly on his point on Toto having the upper hand, but that said I think @Terry Rock is right in that financially speaking, keeping Lewis might be a better choice for Mercedes as a brand, and IMO that has a LOT of value.
Honda just came back to F1 because the new engines has more value to their research on road going cars, Mercedes have a goal of broadening their brand recognition by participating in F1 too I'm quite sure, and Hamilton is a VERY popular guy in the media.

David O'Reilly · Feb 11, 2015

Kjell Eilertsen said:
I voted Hamilton, a while back, but reading through this thread I have to say I change my mind slightly, I kinda agree with @David O'Reilly on his point on Toto having the upper hand, but that said I think @Terry Rock is right in that financially speaking, keeping Lewis might be a better choice for Mercedes as a brand, and IMO that has a LOT of value.
Honda just came back to F1 because the new engines has more value to their research on road going cars, Mercedes have a goal of broadening their brand recognition by participating in F1 too I'm quite sure, and Hamilton is a VERY popular guy in the media.

Yes I think you have made some good points.
I would add as a counter that Lewis Hamilton's "Brand Image" is not his best asset. In my view its his pure talent behind the wheel that is his core asset. He is young funky and edgy but as a brand ambassador it's my view that he is not the solid gold of say a Jenson Button. Lewis is emotional, wears his heart on his sleeve, doesn't always think before he speaks. Eg the telemetry tweet at Spa with McLaren, the criticism of them after he left etc. I'm not criticising him for that. I actually like it more than the "corporate speak " we sometime see. In this way he is more "Senna like". Fast and driven to win rather than perfect.
He is a nice balance to Rosberg in some ways. Nico is very considered , diplomatic and intelligent. Can you recall his podium speech at Sepang in the wake of the Aircraft going missing, It was inspired.

BTW I think it really rocked Lewis's world that he was out qualified in 2014. But he delivered on race day.

There are great examples of drivers that have really managed to insinuate them selves into a great position with key suppliers and sponsors. EG Senna and Honda-they loved him, his engines were marked "For Ayrton" and Prosts were blank. The NSX tie in.
Now Alonso and Honda-they demanded him and paid his wages. (maybe his Ninja tattoo helped).
Alonso again with Ferrari until the management change.
James Hunt and Marlboro.
Lesser known examples such at De La Rosa and Telmex, Guetierez and Telmex., Grosjean and Total.
Now I dont see that at all with Lewis.He races he is fast, then he goes home.

My conclusion is that Lewis as "brand image" property is less important or valuable than Lewis's pure speed.
Two other drivers that are very strong in such a way are Bottas and Hulkenberg.

You raise a good question though. Are M/Benz a) buying a guy to win the WDC or b) a guy to make them more funky as a product.
If its b) then the question is has it worked (probably) then how much more of it do they need? If the answers are yes and more then Lewis has a lot of value in this way.
If they just see that a WDC and WCC will do nicely there are 6 or 7 drivers that can do it for them as the partner to Nico.