Season 8 Race 4 Montreal '79 - Weather

[Daniel Hansson]

Hi all.

Here's the first forecast for Montreal:

The chance of rain during a session is 25 %. In Montreal a lot of different rain are possible. Showers and longer rain is equally probable, with the possibility of really heavy rain. Otherwise around medium intensity.


About the second forecast: what do you think about it?

One thing, will the second forecast reviel what the weather will be like on race day? Or will it still be 35% chance of rain up until the race starts? I think the latter (35% up until race start) would be an advantage in terms of not having to practice wet the last 24 hours.

For me, creating the second forecast is the part that requires a little bit extra thinking, as I haven't programmed something that directly gives me it. I want to be resnoble accurate, without giving away too much. But the workload spent on this isn't a lot. So its up to you all to decide how we should do.

-----------------------

I've decided to do this one like previosly, but being a bit less specific. We can change more for next race. It's no problems.

The second forecast:

Practice: Very low chance of rain.

Qualifying: Same as for practice.

Warmup: Same as above.

Race: A bit higher risk for rain than for the previous sessions, but still pretty low. If it comes it will come as showers, with duration in the order of 15-45 min, and medium to high intensity.

 

[Valter Ostman]

Thank You D

 

[Nicolai Nicholson]

I think if a forecast say 24 hours before the race that the race will indeed be wet, we will have some drivers that are not able to prepare the last 24 hours and will have to go in "blank" and others getting in a few hours practice in wet which I imagine will be a huge advantage.

And thank you for the forecast

EDIT: I think as long as the forecast does not say that it will most likely be wet all race there should not be a problem. I just want to avoid situations where it is obvious from the 24 hour forecast that you will become a lot more competitive if you get in some wet practice in that limited time.

 

[Peter Marshall]

I always go in "blank" It's about fun and not results.

Thank You Daniel.

 

[Reik Major]

Thank you very much Daniel!

From my personal feeling you do it very, very well like you do it so far. If any changes in the forecasts are done or requested by the majority I just want you to know, that I take it as it comes.

I agree with Nico, that it should not be too predictable but give us a slight idea.

@Peter: If a forecast gives a very high chance for rain, I sometimes make a little test in soem rainy conditions (if I have the time ). It's always just a very short one, so I'm not 100% clueless when it rains. That does not mean, that I spoil the thrill of getting surprised in the race, because I can only guess the conditions for such a test and I make it very short.

 

[Nicolai Nicholson]

I always go in "blank" It's about fun and not results.

I also always go in "blank", and most others to, that makes it even/fun. It might not be so fun if next time it is wet the two of us are the only once that are blank and we cannot keep up with the rest. The fun in the races comes from an even field, the smaller the spread in times/pace is, the better the race promises to be and vise versa.

Almost everything at PrestoGP is "designed" to make us more even->more fun; the time table where you can see if your pace if competitive, the sharing of setup knowledge and race line knowledge etc. All because we believe an even field creates more fun than a large spread.

Therefore there is a strong link between competitiveness (results) and fun. So I am not afraid that my results will decline, but that the general level of fun will.

 

[Anthony Ishak]

!

 

[Kurt Kjellin]

Thank You Daniel.

 

[Valerio Vinassa]

Thanks Daniel

 

[Peter Marshall]

Therefore there is a strong link between competitiveness (results) and fun. So I am not afraid that my results will decline, but that the general level of fun will.

I am not entirely certain what you mean here, but I am definitely not a results driven driver. If my car is running then so am I.

 

[Kennett Ylitalo]

I found some good weather icons, free-to-use in non-commercial stuff so no copyright issues. .The whole set preview is here: Preview and the set is here: Full Set

The preview unfortunately uses JPG so they don't have transparency like PNG does, so i quicklinked the most important ones below. You can use direct links, just right-click on image and choose "Copy Image Address " (might be worded differently, i got finnish menus in Firefox..).

Like this:
Heavy Rain:

Medium Rain:

Few showers:

Cloudy:

Sunny:

Cold and Hot:

Don't know if there is any use for them, just an idea...

And BTW, if you wan't to have real good looking rain sky, you can install this, make backup of the original: http://Cream.Galleria.fi/BTB/Misc/Shared_folder_for_EVO.zip

 

[Nicolai Nicholson]

I always go in "blank" It's about fun and not results.

Therefore there is a strong link between competitiveness (results) and fun. So I am not afraid that my results will decline, but that the general level of fun will.

I am not entirely certain what you mean here, but I am definitely not a results driven driver. If my car is running then so am I.

From the Race Director's perspective he want's the league to be as fun as possible with a minimum time of practice required (to allow for a long term relationship with PrestoGP for a maximum of drivers).

I believe that the tighter/closer the league drivers are in pace, the more fun it is, and vise versa. Therefore, when I talk about the competitivenes of a driver, I am thinking of this in regards of contributing positively towards the "fun-pool".

When we first started using weather in PrestoGP, I didn't want it to increase our practice burden; the practice we need to put in to be both safe and competitive in a race. Assuming that everybody are able to deal with a wet track without having practiced it spesifically for that race, I thought that as long as the % chance of wet in a race was relatively low, it would make sense only to practice dry, thus not increasing the preperation burden.

As an example, let's say Anthony have 3 hours that he can spend on preparations for a race. If he knows it is a 25% the race will be wet, he'll probably focus those three hours on dry practice, and rather "wing it" (improvise) if the race turns out wet. This is what we all have been doing so far, more or less. In other words it works. I can get away with only a few hours practice and be competitive.

The situation we now are discussing is if we should have forecast that will say more or less with 100% certainty if the race will be wet or not 24 hours before it starts. I believe such a scenario will work negatively towards stuff like practice burden and competitiveness.

If I use myself as an example, if the forecast say it will be wet in 24 hours, I can ether increase my burden and force in an hour wet practice or I can be less competitive relatively to a dry race. From a drivers perspective there is a third alternative, assuming you are not already close to being the slowest driver already); I will do nothing and still be competitive, only a bit further back the field, thus having the same amount of fun.

Not sure I am making too much sense, and I do not mean to bite at you or anything Peter, only trying to explain my point of view as well as I can

 

[Peter Marshall]

When we first started using weather in PrestoGP, I didn't want it to increase our practice burden

To be clear, for me the weather does not add to my practice time as I will not test or practice at all for wet conditions unless the race server on the day is wet - like in the warm up session at Nurburg, which was cool , chasing you and Sean around in the wet in what I presume was collective "blanK' mode.

As an example, let's say Anthony have 3 hours that he can spend on preparations for a race.

I'd get into trouble [again] if i suggest that 3 hours preparation is enough.

Not sure I am making too much sense, and I do not mean to bite at you or anything Peter, only trying to explain my point of view as well as I can

It is appreciated that you take the time to express yourself Nico.

 

[Kennett Ylitalo]

Hmm.. One idea came to mind.. If you look at those icins i posted, they just happened to be in great order.. What if the Master of the Weather posts one those icons.. You can then know that it's between showers and sunny if it's cloudy in forecast. If the forecast is showers, you'll have cloudy to light rain.. Is it too complicated? Or do we need more symbols? I can try to edit more options to make it more vague.

The current system is fine, no need to improve. Would give some visual aspect too...

Does anyone here know visual basic or visual C? I know the basics, enough to design and do some of the coding, maybe there is a way of catching some weather data online and use the previous day real life weather for race.. just a dream...

 

[Nicolai Nicholson]

I'd get into trouble [again] if i suggest that 3 hours preparation is enough.

Depends of course on who the driver is and how well he knows the track from earlier occations, but I agree that 3 hours is plenty, at least for the old timers

Kennett:
I'll leave the decition conserning the icons etc to Daniel, we discuss what kind of forecast we want, Daniel reads and have the final word on how he will do it, and I am sure he will be interested in the symbols if it works with his final decition

As Peter indirectly points out, this is not a matter of great importance, I can live with whatever forecast, I am just a stickler/petimeter (but it is no point making it more accurate than real life forecast, is it? I do not know with that certainty forecasters can predict weather at a certain time 24 hours ahead? But they certainly missed many times in the 2011 f1 season

 

[Daniel Hansson]

I've decided to do this one like previosly, but being a bit less specific. We can change more for next race. It's no problems.

The second forecast:

Practice: Very low chance of rain.

Qualifying: Same as for practice.

Warmup: Same as above.

Race: A bit higher risk for rain than for the previous sessions, but still pretty low. If it comes it will come as showers, with duration in the order of 15-45 min, and medium to high intensity.

 

[Nicolas Rouge]

Thanks Daniel.

 

[Kurt Kjellin]

Thanks Daniel.

 

[Nicolai Nicholson]

Thank you Daniel

 

[Valter Ostman]

Thank You Daniel.