Hamilton's Potential Points Lost This Season

[Hampus Andersson]

Here´s a good summary on how things would have looked if Mclaren were competent as a team.

From a member at F1Technical, beelsebob.

Hey all, It's that time for the most contentious of threads. Please try to keep discussion to possible inaccuracies in my approximations, rather than fanboy ying yang. Please bear in mind that everything here *is* approximate, it's all guessing.

Here's what I'm taking as "out of driver control":
• Mechanical failures.
• Mechanic --- ups.
• Being hit by another driver without a way of avoiding it.
• Getting punctured by random on-track debris.

What I'm not counting as "out of driver control":
• Gaining or losing from the safety car. This is mostly because it's way too hard to take account of. A safety car on lap 20, closing up 40 second gaps, and ending up causing collisions etc and putting someone 40 seconds ahead in a fight with someone new… just way too complex to figure out basically.
• Strategy --- ups… Again, impossible to figure out.
• Avoidable accidents.

I'm only going to deal with the top few drivers, because again, way too much effort, this is only fun and games, I'm not going to spend hours on something that's mostly a "what if" masturbation.

Australia:
Probably the most unluckiness free race of the season:
1. BUT 25
2. VET 18
3. HAM 15
4. WEB 12
5. ALO 10
7. RAI 6

Malaysia:
Button's contact with the Cucumber was his own fault, as was Vettel's. Realistically again, the finishing order was not very much affected by luck.
1. ALO 25 (35)
3. HAM 15 (30)
4. WEB 12 (24)
5. RAI 10 (16)

China:
Button's pit stop got cocked up, but realistically, it wouldn't have saved him enough for the lead.
2. BUT 18 (43)
3. HAM 15 (45)
4. WEB 12 (36)
5. VET 10 (28)
9. ALO 2 (37)

Bahrain:
Hamilton had an 18 second pit stop, dropping him behind alonso, button and rosberg. He then had a second pit stop disaster, a 12 second stop. Button got a puncture, dropping him from 7th to 12th, he likely would have passed DiResta for 6th. He also had a worrying engine noise, but this is moot, as he was out of the points. Based on time left in pit stops alone, Hamilton would have finished in 4th place, 10 seconds behind grosjean. However, given the time lost behind people, it's likely 3nd was on the cards:
1. VET 25 (53)
2. RAI 18 (34)
3. HAM 15 (60)
5. WEB 10 (46)
7. BUT 6 (49)
8. ALO 4 (41)

Spain:
Hamilton had his mechanics cock up with his fuel rig, dropping him from pole to last. Hamilton's race was also hampered by a pit stop cock up. Vettel and Massa's drive throughs were both personal cock ups, not team. Given Hamilton's qualifying and race pace, it's extremely likely he would have won, had he not been pushed to the back:
1. HAM 25 (85)
3. ALO 15 (56)
4. RAI 12 (46)
7. VET 6 (59)
9. BUT 2 (51)

Monaco:
The safety car sure did help Vettel here, but I've not taken it into account, because it would be way too complex to figure out.
1. WEB 25 (71)
3. ALO 15 (71)
4. VET 12 (71)
5. HAM 10 (95)
9. RAI 2 (48)

Canada:
Tyre chaos, but no major cock ups affecting the race:
1. HAM 25 (120)
4. VET 12 (83)
5. ALO 10 (81)
7. WEB 6 (77)
8. RAI 4 (52)

Valencia:
Hamilton had another pit stop cock up, dropping him from 3rd to 5th, causing him to wear tyres out and lose time. Both Vettel and Grosjean had alternator failures. Hamilton would likely have been ahead of Alonso and Raikonnen, and not have had to drive his tyres so hard had he not have had his pit stop cock up, preventing him from ever being anywhere near Maldonado:
1. VET 25 (108)
3. HAM 15 (135)
4. ALO 12 (93)
5. RAI 10 (62)
8. WEB 4 (81)

Silverstone:
Madness in qualifying, but not really any quantifiable cock ups. The McLaren's set up was clearly compromised, but I have no idea how to quantify that.
1. WEB 25 (106)
2. ALO 18 (111)
3. VET 15 (123)
5. RAI 10 (72)
8. HAM 4 (139)
10. BUT 1 (52)

Germany:
Hamilton got a puncture in turn 1, dropping him way down. He later showed he had more than enough speed to take on Vettel. Vettel's penalty was far from bad luck.
1. ALO 25 (136)
2. HAM 18 (157)
3. BUT 15 (67)
4. RAI 12 (84)
6. VET 8 (131)
9. WEB 2 (108)

Hungary:
Nothing much exciting in terms of cock ups here.
1. HAM 25 (182)
2. RAI 18 (102)
4. VET 12 (143)
5. ALO 10 (146)
6. BUT 8 (75)
8. WEB 4 (112)

Spa:
Alonso and Hamilton got grosjeaned. It's pretty tough to tell how fast they would have been in the race. Alonso made a great start, and typically this year went very well in races. Hamilton is more of a mixed bag. He certainy would have got Maldonado (after a penalty for the start), and was past webber on the start. This one's a bit of a guess:
1. BUT 25 (100)
2. VET 18 (161)
3. RAI 15 (117)
6. HAM 8 (190)
7. WEB 6 (118)

Italy:
Vettel suffered an alternator failure, he had just been penalised for pushing alonso wide, that penalty would have dropped him about 20 seconds behind alonso, so realistically, a 12th place finish or there abouts was likely. Button stopped while running second.
1. HAM 25 (215)
2. BUT 18 (118)
4. ALO 12 (158)
6. RAI 8 (125)

Singapore:
Hamilton had a gear box failure while obviously controlling the race.
1. HAM 25 (240)
2. VET 18 (179)
3. BUT 15 (133)
4. ALO 12 (170)
7. RAI 6 (131)

Japan:
Alonso got taken out on the first lap, but it's really hard to figure out where he realistically would have finished. Based once again on a good start, and generally good race pace, I'm going to make a blind guess at P5. Hamilton suffered an anti-roll bar failure, causing him to drop behind kobayashi:
1. VET 25 (204)
3. HAM 15 (255)
5. ALO 10 (180)
6. BUT 8 (141)
7. RAI 6 (137)
10. WEB 1 (119)

Korea:
Hamilton's anti-roll bar failed, without this he likely would have stuck in P4 happily.
1. VET 25 (229)
2. WEB 18 (137)
3. ALO 15 (195)
4. HAM 12 (267)
6. RAI 8 (145)

India:
No major dramas here:
1. VET 25 (254)
2. ALO 18 (155)
3. WEB 15 (152)
4. HAM 12 (279)
5. BUT 10 (151)
7. RAI 6 (151)

Abu Dhabi:
Vettel's team cocked up his fuelling for qualifying, resulting in him starting from the pit lane. His race pace was boosted by the complete change of setup, and he did get a lot of luck, but realistically, he should have qualified in P3, he would have passed webber well before webber had his shunt. Hamilton had yet another failure while leading:
1. HAM 25 (304)
2. VET 18 (272)
3. ALO 15 (170)
4. BUT 12 (163)

United States:
Nothing spectacularly interesting in the race.
1. HAM 25 (329)
2. VET 18 (290)
3. ALO 15 (185)
5. BUT 12 (175)
6. RAI 10 (161)
Hamilton would have been declared champion after this race.

Brazil:
Hamilton gets punted out by Hulkenberg, and had a very bad pit stop. Other than that, no major incidences of idiocy. I'll give Hulk the benefit of the doubt as he was gaining on Hamilton at the time, and likely would have passed him. Vettel caused his own incident.
2. HAM 18 (347)
3. BUT 15 (190)
4. ALO 12 (197)
6. WEB 8 (160)
7. VET 6 (296)

So, the championship without cock ups looks like this:
1. 347 - Hamilton
2. 296 - Vettel
3. 197 - Alonso
4. 190 - Button
5. 161 - Raikkonen
6. 160 - Webber

So we can see that over the season, Hamilton lost 157 points to general misfortune; vettel lost 15; alonso gained 81, raikkonen gained 46, and button lost 2.

 

[Victor Ivanov]

And the biggest plus is that this year Hamilton didn't do anything stupid like last two years. No contacts caused by him, no mistakes while leading a race. He DNFed so many races and all of them were because of mechanical failures or the idiocy of other drivers. Thumbs up for the new Hamilton. Too bad he won't win a race again for at least one year.

 

[James Bannister]

Here´s a good summary on how things would have looked if Mclaren were competent as a team.

From a member at F1Technical, beelsebob.

That definitely makes for some interesting reading overall. Makes me think you can't really blame Hamilton for wanting to take a risk at another team. As he should have definitely had a 2nd WDC had it not been for bad luck!

 

[Markus Neumann]

Will be interesting to see the tire life.

Mercedes car = not good with tires
Hamilton = known for using more of the tire then most

Schumacher also wears down the tyres more than most drivers, so I wouldn't expect too much of a 'Hamilton effect' here.

 

[Hampus Andersson]

Schumacher also wears down the tyres more than most drivers, so I wouldn't expect too much of a 'Hamilton effect' here.

Problem is next year we have new tires, thermal degradation is said to be a bit more extreme.

Hopefully Mercedes solves the tire wear issue and produce a bonkers of a car.

 

[Kartik Sri Harsha]

I agree with every thing on top except Italy Race
Vettel was forced to Stop with 5 laps to go at that time he was in the DRS zone of Kimi who was in P6 and Served his Drive through Penalty.
But The Important thing is How much alonso gained due to the reliability of Ferrari and unreliability of Mclaren and Redbull. That is the Point Alonso was so high in standings in the Middle part of season and i believe all this was Happened due to Valencia Race where Both Vettel and Lewis got DNF had they both finished then Alonso cannot build so much lead over those two.

 

[Hampus Andersson]

Updated list, updates listed at the bottom.

Hey all, It's that time for the most contentious of threads. Please try to keep discussion to possible inaccuracies in my approximations, rather than fanboy ying yang. Please bear in mind that everything here *is* approximate, it's all guessing.

Here's what I'm taking as "out of driver control":
• Mechanical failures.
• Mechanic --- ups.
• Being hit by another driver without a way of avoiding it.
• Getting punctured by random on-track debris.

What I'm not counting as "out of driver control":
• Gaining or losing from the safety car. This is mostly because it's way too hard to take account of. A safety car on lap 20, closing up 40 second gaps, and ending up causing collisions etc and putting someone 40 seconds ahead in a fight with someone new… just way too complex to figure out basically.
• Strategy --- ups… Again, impossible to figure out.
• Avoidable accidents.

I'm only going to deal with the top few drivers, because again, way too much effort, this is only fun and games, I'm not going to spend hours on something that's mostly a "what if" masturbation.

Australia:
Probably the most unluckiness free race of the season:
1. BUT 25
2. VET 18
3. HAM 15
4. WEB 12
5. ALO 10
7. RAI 6

Malaysia:
Button's contact with the Cucumber was his own fault, as was Vettel's. Realistically again, the finishing order was not very much affected by luck.
1. ALO 25 (35)
3. HAM 15 (30)
4. WEB 12 (24)
5. RAI 10 (16)

China:
Button's pit stop got cocked up, but realistically, it wouldn't have saved him enough for the lead.
2. BUT 18 (43)
3. HAM 15 (45)
4. WEB 12 (36)
5. VET 10 (28)
9. ALO 2 (37)

Bahrain:
Hamilton had an 18 second pit stop, dropping him behind alonso, button and rosberg. He then had a second pit stop disaster, a 12 second stop. Button got a puncture, dropping him from 7th to 12th, he likely would have passed DiResta for 6th. He also had a worrying engine noise, but this is moot, as he was out of the points. Based on time left in pit stops alone, Hamilton would have finished in 4th place, 10 seconds behind grosjean. However, given the time lost behind people, it's likely 3nd was on the cards:
1. VET 25 (53)
2. RAI 18 (34)
3. HAM 15 (60)
5. WEB 10 (46)
7. BUT 6 (49)
8. ALO 4 (41)

Spain:
Hamilton had his mechanics cock up with his fuel rig, dropping him from pole to last. Hamilton's race was also hampered by a pit stop cock up. Vettel and Massa's drive throughs were both personal cock ups, not team. Given Hamilton's qualifying and race pace, it's extremely likely he would have won, had he not been pushed to the back:
1. HAM 25 (85)
3. ALO 15 (56)
4. RAI 12 (46)
7. VET 6 (59)
9. BUT 2 (51)

Monaco:
The safety car sure did help Vettel here, but I've not taken it into account, because it would be way too complex to figure out.
1. WEB 25 (71)
3. ALO 15 (71)
4. VET 12 (71)
5. HAM 10 (95)
9. RAI 2 (48)

Canada:
Tyre chaos, but no major cock ups affecting the race:
1. HAM 25 (120)
4. VET 12 (83)
5. ALO 10 (81)
7. WEB 6 (77)
8. RAI 4 (52)

Valencia:
Hamilton had another pit stop cock up, dropping him from 3rd to 5th, causing him to wear tyres out and lose time. Both Vettel and Grosjean had alternator failures. Hamilton would likely have been ahead of Alonso and Raikonnen, and not have had to drive his tyres so hard had he not have had his pit stop cock up, preventing him from ever being anywhere near Maldonado:
1. VET 25 (108)
3. HAM 15 (135)
4. ALO 12 (93)
5. RAI 10 (62)
8. WEB 4 (81)

Silverstone:
Madness in qualifying, but not really any quantifiable cock ups. The McLaren's set up was clearly compromised, but I have no idea how to quantify that.
1. WEB 25 (106)
2. ALO 18 (111)
3. VET 15 (123)
5. RAI 10 (72)
8. HAM 4 (139)
10. BUT 1 (52)

Germany:
Hamilton got a puncture in turn 1, dropping him way down. He later showed he had more than enough speed to take on Vettel. Vettel's penalty was far from bad luck.
1. ALO 25 (136)
2. HAM 18 (157)
3. BUT 15 (67)
4. RAI 12 (84)
6. VET 8 (131)
9. WEB 2 (108)

Hungary:
Nothing much exciting in terms of cock ups here.
1. HAM 25 (182)
2. RAI 18 (102)
4. VET 12 (143)
5. ALO 10 (146)
6. BUT 8 (75)
8. WEB 4 (112)

Spa:
Alonso and Hamilton got grosjeaned. It's pretty tough to tell how fast they would have been in the race. Alonso made a great start, and typically this year went very well in races. Hamilton is more of a mixed bag. He certainy would have got Maldonado (after a penalty for the start), and was past webber on the start. This one's a bit of a guess:
1. BUT 25 (100)
2. VET 18 (161)
3. ALO 15 (161)
4. RAI 12 (114)
6. HAM 8 (190)
7. WEB 6 (118)

Italy:
Vettel suffered an alternator failure, he had just been penalised for pushing alonso wide, that penalty had dropped him to 6th place. Button stopped while running second. Alonso had an anti-roll bar failure in qually, which caused him to qualify much lower than he might otherwise, on the other hand, he ate his tyres in the race. I've guessed he might have beaten perez with this in mind.
1. HAM 25 (215)
2. BUT 18 (118)
3. ALO 15 (176)
6. VET 8 (169)
7. RAI 6 (120)

Singapore:
Hamilton had a gear box failure while obviously controlling the race.
1. HAM 25 (240)
2. VET 18 (187)
3. BUT 15 (133)
4. ALO 12 (188)
7. RAI 6 (126)

Japan:
Alonso got taken out on the first lap, but it's really hard to figure out where he realistically would have finished. Based once again on a good start, and generally good race pace, I'm going to make a blind guess at P5. Hamilton suffered an anti-roll bar failure, causing him to drop behind kobayashi:
1. VET 25 (204)
3. HAM 15 (255)
5. ALO 10 (198)
6. BUT 8 (141)
7. RAI 6 (132)
10. WEB 1 (119)

Korea:
Hamilton's anti-roll bar failed, without this he likely would have stuck in P4 happily.
1. VET 25 (237)
2. WEB 18 (137)
3. ALO 15 (213)
4. HAM 12 (267)
6. RAI 8 (140)

India:
No major dramas here:
1. VET 25 (262)
2. ALO 18 (231)
3. WEB 15 (152)
4. HAM 12 (279)
5. BUT 10 (151)
7. RAI 6 (146)

Abu Dhabi:
Vettel's team cocked up his fuelling for qualifying, resulting in him starting from the pit lane. His race pace was boosted by the complete change of setup, and he did get a lot of luck, but realistically, he should have qualified in P3, he would have passed webber well before webber had his shunt. Hamilton had yet another failure while leading:
1. HAM 25 (304)
2. VET 18 (280)
3. ALO 15 (246)
4. BUT 12 (163)

United States:
Webber had an alternator failure while running 3rd here.
1. HAM 25 (329)
2. VET 18 (298)
3. WEB 15 (167)
3. ALO 12 (258)
5. BUT 10 (173)
6. RAI 8 (154)
Hamilton would have been declared champion after this race.

Brazil:
Hamilton gets punted out by Hulkenberg, and had a very bad pit stop. Other than that, no major incidences of idiocy. I'll give Hulk the benefit of the doubt as he was gaining on Hamilton at the time, and likely would have passed him. Vettel caused his own incident.
2. HAM 18 (347)
3. BUT 15 (188)
4. ALO 12 (270)
6. WEB 8 (175)
7. VET 6 (304)

So, the championship without cock ups looks like this:
1. 347 - Hamilton
2. 304 - Vettel
3. 270 - Alonso
4. 188 - Button
5. 175 - Webber
6. 152 - Raikkonen

So we can see that over the season, Hamilton lost 157 points to general misfortune; vettel lost 23; alonso gained 8, raikkonen gained 53, and button was bang on.

Edits made:
1. Given Alonso a placing at Spa, no idea why he wasn't placed before.
2. Given Vettel p6 in italy.
3. Webber's alternator failure at CotA.
4. Added Alonso's qualifying failure in italy.
5. Fixed the summation of Alonso's points.

 

[Tony Holder]

''So we can see that over the season, Hamilton lost 157 points to general misfortune; vettel lost 23; alonso gained 8, raikkonen gained 53, and button was bang on.''

BLODDY HELL!!!

 

[Hampus Andersson]

And the vast majority will never know...

 

[Tony Holder]

Yup...what could have been and what was.....2012 could have been sooooo different.

 

[Metalfreaky]

I agree that Hamilton would be up there fighting for WDC without those failiures, but I highly doubt that the championchip situation would look that clearly.
There are many assumptions made which are imo pro Hamilton. Just for example how can someone say Hamilton would have won brazil after all that weather chaos after his retirement or in Monza where the Ferrari was probably the only time the quickest car in the dry and the editor of the post above puts him in third.
Those imo are higly speculative assumptions and not like Hamilton retireing in Abu Dhabi where he was way faster than anybody.
Also I wouln't call Hamilton's pointloss misfortune. For me bad luck is when someone drives into you like Hulk yesterday or Grosjean in Spa.
Technical failures or bad pitstops are team errors and just shows that other teams did a better job.

 

[Ivan Mills]

For me bad luck is when someone drives into you like Hulk yesterday or Grosjean in Spa.
Technical failures or bad pitstops are team errors and just shows that other teams did a better job.

exactly what i was thinking...

coulda,shoulda ,but it didna...u pick yourself up and try again next time...british pundits trying to hail Hamilton the unsung 2012 champ is way outhere

 

[Hampus Andersson]

Engine is from Mercedes, Red Bull´s alternator from Magneti Marelli.

These are not something that shows other teams did better or worse, this is pure bad luck that the failures happened.

Ivan we know you are just pissed the old man is retiring....again.

 

[James Bannister]

Pit stops are definite team failures I will agree, but you could point out and say imagine him and Button had the pit stop ability of Red Bull, I think they only had 1 real pit stop erro I can recall most of the season and that was in Brazil due to Vettel's radio issue.

This isn't complete bad luck, but it does show he has been slightly let down by his team, could it have been pressure though? I mean after making 1 mistake, could it have played on them a lot more and resulted in more mistakes in latter races. Tough to judge really, but I do feel that is the most consistent season for Hamilton's driving and he was let down by something else, not himself making silly mistakes by being too aggressive as such. He must be gutted as he could have at least been in the title fight. If you think back to Singapore when he said I need to win every race...he very nearly could have or at least been in with a shot of doing so.

 

[Alexander Macdonald]

Maybe Vettel is the greatest driver in the Sports history, but nobody can tell. I don't really like all these pundits talking about Vettel as if he's some god and everyone else is just okay. We have almost NO idea how good Vettel actually. For all we know he could be slower than Karthikeyan. Di Resta outperformed him in Formula 3, now Hulkenburg has been outperforming Di Resta. Until he has gone up against a proven driver like Alonso, we can't really assess if vettel is any good as a driver. The reason some people rate Hamilton highly, is because he beat Alonso in his rookie season. The reason some people think he's over-rated, is because they didn't his attitude at first and now cannot admit that Hamilton is actually a good driver. Hamilton's attitude since he left Mclaren has been perfect, he's reacted very calmy to everything that has happened even though none of the incidents or failures have been his fault. Vettel seems to have taken over the reins of being a bad loser from Hamilton. Anyone hear his radio message in Austin after he was overtaking by Hamilton. I lost a large amount of respect for Vettel, as I always thought he was a calm and sporting driver, but it appears I was wrong. It was at that time when my support went fully to Alonso.

So until something changes, Hamilton and Alonso are both better than Sebastian Vettel.

I apologise for this long rant, I just get frustrated that Vettel is a three time world champ while people like Di Resta and Hulkenburg (who the facts suggest are better) have never won a race.

 

[Metalfreaky]

Engine is from Mercedes, Red Bull´s alternator from Magneti Marelli.

In Singapore Hamiltons gearbox failed - built by McLaren
Afaik the reason in Abu Dhabi was someting about the fuel pump.
And his various car problems like in Japan or Korea were also made by McLaren.

I really don't consider Hamilton as highly unlucky this season but rather let down by the team.

 

[James Bannister]

Maybe Vettel is the greatest driver in the Sports history, but nobody can tell. I don't really like all these pundits talking about Vettel as if he's some god and everyone else is just okay. We have almost NO idea how good Vettel actually. For all we know he could be slower than Karthikeyan. Di Resta outperformed him in Formula 3, now Hulkenburg has been outperforming Di Resta. Until he has gone up against a proven driver like Alonso, we can't really assess if vettel is any good as a driver. The reason some people rate Hamilton highly, is because he beat Alonso in his rookie season. The reason some people think he's over-rated, is because they didn't his attitude at first and now cannot admit that Hamilton is actually a good driver. Hamilton's attitude since he left Mclaren has been perfect, he's reacted very calmy to everything that has happened even though none of the incidents or failures have been his fault. Vettel seems to have taken over the reins of being a bad loser from Hamilton. Anyone hear his radio message in Austin after he was overtaking by Hamilton. I lost a large amount of respect for Vettel, as I always thought he was a calm and sporting driver, but it appears I was wrong. It was at that time when my support went fully to Alonso.

So until something changes, Hamilton and Alonso are both better than Sebastian Vettel.

I apologise for this long rant, I just get frustrated that Vettel is a three time world champ while people like Di Resta and Hulkenburg (who the facts suggest are better) have never won a race.

Can't deny Vettel's ability IMO, he drove very well in Toro Rosso beforehand to prove his talent and then look how well he has done compared to Webber. Hard to say if he is truly a great, but if he ever moves to Ferrari I think we would find out.

 

[Ivan Mills]

LH was indeed in great form this year,but dont forget he didnt have to deal with any real pressure..he just got in, drove and the team's reliabilty failed him. The picture could be very different if he was indeed in the hunt ,competing for the Drivers title.
And if 2008 was any indication ,he is mistake prone. So even if the team hadnt failed him ,we still have that unknown of how he deals with the pressure ,when its on him!
Yesterday i think , was not a very good race for Lewis,he was being rattled early on by his teamamte Jenson and didnt look like the dominant Hamsta we saw in Abu and US

Schu remains possibly the most pressure resistent driver ive witnessed..gets in the car and wins ,no if's or but's

 

[DarkZenith]

Hamilton has had his moments on track, but as far as screw-ups go, I have to say it's mostly been on the team side of things this year. Quite how some of those people have kept their jobs is beyond me, and I'm starting to wonder if they are a little too relaxed about it sometimes.

I'm sad to see Lewis go, but I honestly don't blame him either; at least Mercedes don't have a myriad of epic screw-ups to their name. McLaren seriously need to up their game for 2013, or it's going to be another one horse championship, and if that happens then the future of the sport isn't very bright.

 

[Ivan Mills]

One thing i like about Lewis,(besides how quick he is over a single lap) is how passionate he is....u can see it in his eyes...they glow so bright when he is at the top step!..its goose bump inducing!

i hope that passion and emotion dont bring him down when he does get the car one day.
U need to be stone cold ,ruthless and brutal..having emotions take away from that

When i look in Maldonados eyes ..i see a black hole