Chris
Premium
This Sunday will see either Lewis Hamilton or Nico Rosberg crowned as the 2016 Formula One World Champion. The latter currently holds a 12 point lead and given the strength of the Mercedes, it will take nothing more than good luck and fortune for the title to swing Hamilton's way. The simple math is this: If Nico Rosberg finishes third or higher, the championship is his.
The Track
Whilst the Yas Marina circuit has played host to few dramatic races in the past, the circuit characteristics are not typically conducive to the production of quality racing. Medium-speed 90 degree corners combined with the current aerodynamic dependencies of F1 cars does not equal close racing as overtaking is difficult - just ask Fernando Alonso.
The track itself is visually stunning, especially when the sun sets and the thousands of floodlights begin to illuminate the track. It truly is a demonstration from the Arab Emirates of astronomical levels of expenditure, thanks to Mr. Crude. The track surface is so smooth that even the finest grade of sandpaper is more abrasive and the track facilities are far and away the best on the F1 calendar.
On paper this track looks as good as any for Mercedes. Many traction zones and long straights, it will be a surprise if anyone can get anywhere near the two Brackley cars this weekend. Despite the Red Bull's having shown better pace in the latter half of the season and thus putting Mercedes under increased pressure, the Silver Arrows will still very much be the team to beat and anything but a 1-2 in qualifying will be a massive surprise.
Nico Rosberg
As I mentioned earlier, if Hamilton wins, Rosberg simply needs to finish on the podium to clinch the title. However, the immense pressure of a title deciding Grand Prix could yet see mistakes made that otherwise would not have been a cause for concern. In the past, Rosberg had often not been the best of drivers under pressurized situations, however 2016 is a different year and Rosberg very much looks to have elevated his game.
He's stated prior to the weekend that he is going into it with the intention of winning the race, but when the lights go out, he will surely know that a defensive drive is all it takes. Despite the unbelievably tricky conditions in Brazil, he showed that whilst he may not have the pure pace to match a Hamilton or a Verstappen in the wet, he's got enough talent to do just what it takes to get the job done and massage the points lead; Prost-style.
Whilst he isn't on his best current run of form, having to play second fiddle to Hamilton for the past three grands prix, barring any mechanical reliability issues Rosberg surely looks set to take his first ever World Drivers Championship.
Lewis Hamilton
It hasn't been the easiest of seasons for Hamilton. Some poor decisions early on cost him ground in the championship battle, and some poor starts have also cost him dearly, however the same could be said of Rosberg. But there's no getting around the fact that the reliability of his Mercedes has been the primary contributor to his points deficit.
Had his Mercedes not failed in Malaysia and the following rounds results remained the same, Hamilton would be heading to Abu Dhabi with an 11 point lead in the championship as a opposed to a 12 point deficit. But, we cannot deal in hypotheticals even if it does make for great 'pub-chat'.
Given that he is 12 points shy of his speedy teammate, Lewis himself admits that winning the race is not enough to get the job done. He will need to rely on some luck to swing his way if he wants to even have a chance at the title, but it is motor racing and anything can happen. His best chance of shaking up the order - assuming he is leading the race from Rosberg - is to back Rosberg up into the chasing pack and hope for one of those patented Verstappen stunners, or an immense Ricciardo lunge.
Irrespective of the winner come Sunday, both drivers can consider themselves worthy World Champions in what has been an epic title battle for the second time in three years.
Images credit of FIA.com
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